Above photo: Workers from the state-owned oil company protest “imperialist aggression.” Jorge Silva / Reuters
Staff note: The wikileaks cable below from 2013 shows the depth of collaboration between private corporations and the US government to destabilize Chavez-Maduro government in Venezuela. This campaign is ongoing as seen in manipulation of the availability of goods and the destabilization of Venezuelan currency by the illegal influx of US dollars with the effects of manufactured scarcity and inflation that fuel unrest and as seen in the use of students to create opposition to President Maduro. In the last 6 months, Maduro has expelled 6 US diplomats who were caught causing these problems. These are time-tested methods of regime change used by the US. And the US and oligarchic media in Venezuela cooperate by telling outright lies and omitting important information. Let us not be fooled.
On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered “global intelligence” company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal’s Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor’s web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.
Re: Guidance: Exxon and Venezuela
Released on 2013-02-13 00:00 GMT
| Email-ID | 1733427 |
|---|---|
| Date | unspecified |
| From | marko.papic@stratfor.com |
| To | analysts@stratfor.com |
try to meet them in person. They were VERY eager to meet us in person last
time I talked to them (dec/jan) and are still eager to meet us in DC.—– Original Message —–
From: “Peter Zeihan” <zeihan@stratfor.com>
To: “Analyst List” <analysts@stratfor.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2008 9:37:44 AM (GMT-0500) America/Bogota
Subject: Re: Guidance: Exxon and Venezuelabtw — for those who don’t know what CANVAS/Otpor is…..http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/venezuela_new_player_mixscott stewart wrote:I’m with Peter that this is far too slick for the Administration and am
also intrigued by the timing of this related to the spinning up of
CANVAS in Venezuela. It seems to fit timing-wise.
Any way we can chat with the CANVAS folks?
—–Original Message—–
From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
[mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Peter Zeihan
Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2008 9:14 AM
To: Analyst List
Subject: Re: Guidance: Exxon and Venezuela
no argument that that the media portrayal of Chavez has picked up
non-ME State has been bled dry in the past five years so i doubt this
is originating there
but remember Otpor? — media manipulation is one of their specialties
and yes — it can hurt — the question is will the final case find for
Exxon — if that happens it opens up the floodgates
i think ur right that the key thought is “in their spare time” — this
is too slick and subtle to be US style (certainly not State) — i
really think Otpor is involved (maybe even in the middle if it)
As to exxon’s motivation, this is my biggest point of disagreement —
based on whose numbers you use the CN project is worth $1-$4 billion
— that’s worth going to court for — most MNCs don’t sue because
there are no assets to go after (they’re all in country) — that is
not the case for PDVSA which has substantial intl assets, ergo the
suit — while i’m sure Bush and Co are egging them on, i see no reason
why Exxon wouldn’t have done this anyway
Next steps: Exxon’s case will probably be coming soon — all the legal
and diplomatic groundwork is already laid
for the US is it enough to get rid of Chavez the person? or do you
think the US’d want to bring down his whole circle?
George Friedman wrote:
Been thinking about this. We have seen measurable, but not yet
significant, opposition to Chavez in Venezuela in the past months.
There’s a sense in the U.S. media that he’s topped out. Media
doesn’t know shit about Venezuela. They are getting this stuff from
State Department and NSC backgrounders. Ever since he lost the
constitutional amendment, someone has been creating an aura of
decline. There was huge bad press on the Venezuelan extraction of
the hostages in Colombia. It wasn’t all that screwed up. Someone
really good orchestrated the media on that, making it look like he
was taken by FARC, the story on the kid in the foster home. The
whole thing could have been made to look like FARC was a lot more
humane than anyone thought, but it was spun to look like Chavez was
the devil. That was neatly done and whoever did it was good.
Last fall Exxon sues Venezuela. They did not do this without
coordinating very carefully with the White House. This was not
simply a business decision. Exxon would much rather slide through to
another deal than cause a confrontation. That’s the way they work.
But here they are, kicking off a nasty fight deliberately, including
a move by Chavez to scare their shareholders. They didn’t think of
this themselves. They had more than top cover. Someone encouraged
them.
Chavez has some good lawyers in New York, but once the suit was
filed, the judgment was inevitable. Exxon knows that Venezuela will
delay implementation of the judgment for an eternity. Chavez hit
back with the only thing he could, cutting off sales to Exxon.
Peter’s shown that that doesn’t mean anything.
I am getting an interesting feeling here. I think the
administration, in its spare time, is maneuvering Chavez back
against the wall. Exxon took a shot at them that I think actually
can hurt. They came back with a response that basically doesn’t do
squat. It was their only call.
Theory: the U.S. is trying to destabilize Chavez. Some time around
the election, the U.S. switched from benign neglect to active
information warfare and the Exxon deal is part of it. The U.S. is
trying to throw him off balance and give space for the opposition to
regroup and form.
I don’t know that this is true, but Exxon doesn’t make moves like
this without close consultation. I also suspect the judgments can
cause real heartburn for the Venezuelans. And his response is
exactly what the administration would have wanted. It looks like
he’s nuts but does us no harm.
This would mean that Exxon would start getting even more legally
aggressive, other lawsuits would be filed in a flurry, and Chavez
would get more shrill. The press will be spun to see Chavez as going
nuts. Then an opposition leader would emerge. It would not be the
old guard. It would be someone from inside his coalition who isn’t
close to him but can’t be touched by him.
Who is that guy. Find him, and then we can walk back the cat, if
such there be.
George Friedman
Chief Executive Officer
STRATFOR
512.744.4319 phone
512.744.4335 fax
gfriedman@stratfor.com
_______________________
http://www.stratfor.com
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
700 Lavaca St
Suite 900
Austin, Texas 78701
——————————————————————
_______________________________________________
Analysts mailing list
LIST ADDRESS:
analysts@stratfor.com
LIST INFO:
http://alamo.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
LIST ARCHIVE:
http://lurker.stratfor.com/list/analysts.en.html
CLEARSPACE:
http://clearspace.stratfor.com/community/analysts
——————————————————————
_______________________________________________
Analysts mailing list
LIST ADDRESS:
analysts@stratfor.com
LIST INFO:
http://alamo.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
LIST ARCHIVE:
http://lurker.stratfor.com/list/analysts.en.html
CLEARSPACE:
http://clearspace.stratfor.com/community/analysts
_______________________________________________ Analysts mailing list LIST
ADDRESS: analysts@stratfor.com LIST INFO:
http://alamo.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts LIST ARCHIVE:
http://lurker.stratfor.com/list/analysts.en.html CLEARSPACE:
http://clearspace.stratfor.com/community/analysts