Above: Cape Town’s poor protest land, jobs and housing at a peaceful demonstrations in the exclusive Rondebosch Commons area of Cape Town. They were greeted by officers in riot gear who sprayed the crowd with a blue dye — similar to an apartheid-era move where police used purple dye to identify and arrest protesters — and allegedly assaulted many of the protesters during arrest.
Protests and Police Statistics in South Africa: Some Commentary
On 19 March the South African Minister of Police, Mr. Nathi Mthetwa, informed parliament about the number of ‘crowd management incidents’ that occurred during the three years from 1 April 2009.[1] Table 1, compares the new data with similar statistics for the preceding five years.
Table 1. Crowd management incidents[2]
|
Peaceful
|
Unrest
|
Total
|
|
|
2004/05
|
7,382
|
622
|
8,004
|
|
2005/06
|
9,809
|
954
|
10,763
|
|
2006/07
|
8,703
|
743
|
9,446
|
|
2007/08
|
6,431
|
705
|
7,136
|
|
2008/09
|
6,125
|
718
|
6,843
|
|
2009/10
|
7,897
|
1,008
|
8,905
|
|
2010/11
|
11,681
|
973
|
12,654
|
|
2011/12[3]
|
9,942
|
1,091
|
11,033
|
In 2010/11 there was a record number of crowd management incidents (unrest and peaceful), and the final data for 2011/12 are likely to show an even higher figure.[4] Already, the number of gatherings involving unrest was higher in 2011/12 than any previous year. During the last three years, 2009-12, there has been an average of 2.9 unrest incidents per day. This is an increase of 40 percent over the average of 2.1 unrest incidents per day recorded for 2004-09. The statistics show that what has been called the Rebellion of the Poor has intensified over the past three years.
In 2010 the Minister of Police explained that: ‘the Incident Regulation Information System (IRIS) classifies incidents either as crowd management (peaceful) where the incident is managed in co-operation with the convenor and the police only monitor the gathering, or as crowd management (unrest) where the police need to intervene to make arrests or need to use force when there is a risk to safety or possible damage to property’.[5]
‘Gatherings’ may be sporting activities, for example, but the majority are related to protests of some kind.[6] During 2007/08 to 2009/10 ‘the most common reason for conducting crowd management (peaceful) gatherings was labour related demands for increases in salary/wages’. For the same period, the most common reason for ‘crowd management (unrest) was related to service delivery issues’.[7] The Minister’s new statement does not include similar information for 2010/12.statement the average number of participants in gatherings defined as ‘crowd management (peaceful)’ was 500 (2007/08) and 4,000 (2008/09), and the average number in those defined as ‘crowd management (unrest)’ was 3,000 (2007/08) and 4,000 (2008/09). In the new statement, the minister declined to put a figure
According to the minister’s 2010 on numbers of participants.
For the first time, the minister was asked to state the number of arrests that had occurred with crowd management (unrest) gatherings. These were given as 4,883 (2009/10), 4,680 (2010/11), 2,967 (1 April 2011 to 5 March 2012). These figures give the average number of arrests per unrest gathering as, respectively, 4.8 (2009/10), 4.8 (2010/11), and 2.7 (2011/12).[8]
|
2011 population estimate[10]
|
Peaceful incidents
|
Peaceful incidents per thousand
|
Unrest incidents
|
Unrest incidents per thousand
|
|
|
Gauteng
|
11,328,203
|
9209
|
0.81
|
1097
|
0.10
|
|
Limpopo
|
5,554,657
|
4066
|
0.73
|
222
|
0.04
|
|
North West
|
3,253,390
|
6980
|
2.15
|
695
|
0.21
|
|
Mpumalanga
|
3,657,181
|
1944
|
0.53
|
358
|
0.10
|
|
KwaZulu-Natal
|
10,819,130
|
8555
|
0.79
|
546
|
0.05
|
|
Eastern Cape
|
6,829,958
|
3578
|
0.52
|
322
|
0.05
|
|
Free State
|
2,759,644
|
2606
|
0.94
|
413
|
0.15
|
|
Western Cape
|
5,287,863
|
3148
|
0.60
|
599
|
0.11
|
|
Northern Cape
|
1,096,731
|
1990
|
1.81
|
243
|
0.22
|
Table 2 also compares numbers of incidents with size of population (as estimated by StatsSA for 2011). We need to add the rider that figures are for numbers of gatherings, and these can vary in size. However, when we take population into account North West and Northern Cape come out on top. Since it is likely that most of the peaceful incidents are related to labour protests and many are sporting events, the unrest incidents are probably more pertinent as a gauge of the scale of service delivery protests in particular and the rebellion of the poor in general. It is notable that the three poorer provinces (which are also the most rural) – i.e. Limpopo, Eastern Cape and KZN – have a lower propensity towards unrest incidents than other provinces. The implication, reflected in other studies, is that the rebellion cannot be explained in terms of poverty as such. It is mainly a movement within urban areas, but within those areas most participants and leaders can be regarded as poor, with a high proportion coming from informal settlements, where services are especially weak.
The main conclusion we draw from the latest police statistics is that the number of service delivery protests continues unabated. Government attempts to improve service delivery have not been sufficient to assuage the frustration and anger of poor people in South Africa. From press reports and our own research it is clear that while service delivery demands provide the principal focus for unrest incidents, many other issues are being raised, notably lack of jobs. As many commentators and activists now accept, service delivery protests are part of a broader Rebellion of the Poor. This rebellion is massive. I have not yet found any other country where there is a similar level of ongoing urban unrest. South Africa can reasonably be described as the ‘protest capital of the world’. It also has the highest levels of inequality and unemployment of any major country, and it is not unreasonable to assume that the rebellion is, to a large degree, a consequence of these phenomena. There is no basis for assuming that the rebellion will subside unless the government is far more effective in channelling resources towards the poor.
[1] The minister was responding to a question raised by Mr M.H. Hoosen of the Independent Democrats. See National Assembly (2012), 36/1/4/1/201200049, Question No. 397, 19 March. I am grateful to Mr Hoosen for asking this question.
[2] Data supplied by ministers of police in response to parliamentary questions, with the exception of 2004/05, where the statistics come directly from the South African Police Service’s IRIS. See Natasha Vally (2009), ‘National trends around protest action: mapping protest action in South Africa’ (Centre for Sociological Research and Development Studies Seminar, University of Johannesburg); Peter Alexander (2010), ‘Rebellion of the poor: South Africa’s service delivery protests – a preliminary analysis’, Review of African Political Economy 37(123), pp. 26-27; National Assembly (2010), 36/1/4/1/201000030, Question No. 194, 19 April.
[3] For 2011/12 the figures are for the period 1 April 2011 to 5 March 2012.
[4] Ibid.
[5] National Assembly (2010).
[6] Vally (2009).
[7] National Assembly (2010), National Assembly (2012).
[8] National Assemby 2012.
[9] Vally (2009), Alexander (2010).
[10] Statistics South Africa, Mid-year Population Estimates (2011).