Above photo: Sign translated – There are no cowards here. Nobody here gives up.
Caracas witnessed this March 10 a mobilization called by Juan Guaidó and another by Chavismo.
What should have been a forceful opposition action had no impact and clearly showed the division in the ranks of the opposition, an element that forces the American strategy to accelerate times.
The Venezuelan right faces a sustained crisis in the ability to mobilize its social base. The latest actions have been an expression of that picture of little strength that cannot be disguised.
March 10 should be the day to reverse that trend. The call for mobilization, led by the self-proclaimed president Juan Guaidó, lasted three weeks and the promise was greater than before: this time it was about reaching the National Assembly (AN), in the center of Caracas, the heart of power national politician.
People gathered in Chacao, in the east of the city, the usual opposition area, around 10 am local time. As Guaidó had announced, during this gathering, flyers with the slogans to find out how to mobilize during the day would be delivered.
“We have to get to the Assembly and grab it with our President Juan Guaidó,” said a young man from the concentration point.
However, since 9:30 in the morning, chairs were installed near the concentration point to carry out the AN session that claimed to preside over Guaidó. That is to say, while the expectation of going to the seat of the legislature and receiving instructions was maintained, the plan had already been set up: the mobilization would be for a few blocks.
The result was then, again, a disappointment for those who came to Guaidó’s call. The mobilization was not forceful, the AN headquarters was always on the other side of the city and Guaidó announced, diffusely, that there will be a new mobilization on Thursday, March 12.
Chavismo
“They do not have the capacity to mobilize, to organize, they do not have a proposal … it is a lack of political imagination,” said Diosdado Cabello, president of the National Constituent Assembly (ANC) who, from the west of Caracas, was part of the mobilization of Chavismo .
It has become customary for Chavismo to call for a mobilization in the center of the city in the face of a call for action from the right. The objective is, in these cases, to demonstrate that there is a government and a political and social force on the streets mobilized in defense of the Bolivarian Revolution.
This time it was not the exception and the different structures of Chavismo were in the center of Caracas in a new show of forces.
“The hours that come are going to be decisive (…) you have to be pending because they have in mind an agenda of violence in the country,” said Tania Díaz, vice president of propaganda, action and mobilization of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV).
The hidden agenda
On March 7 an event of national impact occurred: the fire in the main shed of the National Electoral Council (CNE) that caused a column of black smoke visible from much of the city.
In the act, 49,000 voting machines were burned, among other instruments of the Electoral Power. The act was claimed by the Venezuelan Patriot Front, an armed group that broadcast a video in which they claimed responsibility for the act that they called Operation Sodom, declared military objectives to leaders of the Bolivarian process and called for war to the death.
They were awarded the attack that occurred on February 11 in the city of Valencia on the warehouses of CANTV, a state-owned internet and telephone company. The name of that action was, as announced in the video, Operation Genesis.
The last video appearance of a group of these characteristics had occurred after the attack on two military barracks in Bolívar state, near the border with Brazil, which took place in late December. On that occasion, a group called Operation Aurora emerged, which broadcast a video.
North American messages
On March 7, Donald Trump, the US president, received Jair Bolsonaro, the Brazilian president, at a meeting where the Venezuela case was specially addressed. Shortly before the meeting, the Brazilian Government announced the withdrawal of its diplomatic officials from Venezuela.
Bolsonaro, along with his Defense Minister, Fernando Azevedo e Silva, also met with the head of the Southern Command, Craig Faller, with whom he signed military cooperation agreements .
Days before, it had been the Colombian president, Iván Duque, who had met with Trump , in a meeting where, they claimed, they addressed the Venezuela file.
Thus, the two presidents of the central land bordering countries of Venezuela, both on the right, aligned with the North American strategy, were meeting with Trump to address the situation in Venezuela. Those meetings were presented by the coup opposition as a sign that the US government is on the verge of taking new decisive forceful actions.
The break
The mobilization on March 10 had an unexpected element: the statements of the main leader of the opposition Democratic Action (AD) party, Ramos Allup, who affirmed that he will participate in the next legislative elections.
“Let’s get ready to go to the elections that the Constitution says must be done, which are the elections for the National Assembly, because this year the period expires, what are we going to do, are we going to sit down?” concentration.
His words confirmed what was an open secret: one of the central forces that supported the North American strategy expressed in the figure of Guaidó, made the decision to participate in the legislative elections, that is, to reach an agreement with the Government to its realization.
Although Allup added that “we are also pressing for presidential elections,” the message was clear and entails a breakdown of the road map held by Guaidó, who affirms that the only elections must be presidential and without Maduro in power.
Thus, what was to be a day of mobilization to the Legislative Power in the always promise of a coup escalation, ended with a concentration in eastern Caracas, and the announcement of participation in the legislative elections by Allup.
What’s Next?
There are two political times developing simultaneously. On the one hand, a scenario under construction to achieve a broad agreement for the next legislative elections. The government and an increasingly wide range of opposition parties and leaders are working on this road map.
Central steps have already been taken in that direction, such as, for example, the installation on March 9 of the Electoral Nominations Committee to elect the new CNE, with the participation of Chavismo and opposition deputies: the president will be Ángel Medina, from the Primero Justicia party, and Vice President Julio Chávez from the PSUV.
On the other hand, the time for the overthrow attempt is underway, with Guaidó as the national screen and with US leadership and financing. This strategy has not yielded favorable political results, either in Maduro’s weakening or in social legitimacy, since the economic blockade does not have the majority approval of society.
It is thus two times that advance simultaneously and the second, the coup, needs to stop the accumulation of forces of the first, the electoral. For this, it needs to carry out initiatives that achieve an impact, which leads to hypotheses related to force actions, such as the CNE shed fire or the attacks on barracks last December near the border with Brazil.
Venezuela is living a 2020 hinge where the possibility of achieving a majority political agreement that allows to set up a new Electoral Power and legislative elections is on the table. Achieving that would be a victory for political stability, the keys to the conflict, and a setback for the United States’ plan.