Above photo: Donald Trump with Speaker of the House Mike Johnson.
And The Right Wing.
A government shutdown appears highly likely in the coming hours. Despite last-minute negotiations, this dramatic development is coming to pass for one fundamental reason: The Trump administration and the right wing in Congress is determined to destroy working people’s access to healthcare.
In a “government shutdown”, not every part of the federal government stops operating. ICE agents will continue to terrorize immigrant families. The Pentagon war machine will continue to threaten the world. The first programs to be imperiled will be vital lifelines like WIC or food stamps.
Typically, shutdowns have been caused by Republican members of Congress who refuse to pass budget bills unless they include massive cuts to social programs. The political character this time, however, is different. Democrat politicians, whose votes are needed in the Senate to pass the 60-vote “filibuster” requirement, say they will not vote for a funding bill unless it reverses the cuts to Medicaid in Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” that passed in July, and prevents the expiration of subsidies associated with the Affordable Care Act that lower insurance premium payments.
Republicans can end the shutdown at any time. All they would have to do is back off Medicaid cuts, and keep funding in place that lowers premiums for plans bought on the ACA marketplaces. Instead, they are threatening to escalate their war on working families by carrying out even more mass layoffs of federal workers.
Political calculations of the Democratic Party elite
A defining quality of the top leadership of the Democratic Party is their pathetic reluctance to take any forceful stand in opposition to the right wing’s agenda – no matter how popular their underlying positions are. This was on full display just six months ago when Democrats in the Senate were faced with the same question: temporarily extend government funding, or shut down the government to fight the Trump agenda (at that time Elon Musk’s “DOGE” cuts were the central issue). Chuck Schumer decided to surrender without a fight and give the Republicans the temporary funding bill they wanted.
So why is this time different? In essence, the anti-Trump movement has become stronger and more widespread. When he capitulated in March, Schumer was met with outrage even from among other Democrat politicians who favor a more confrontational posture towards Trump. Since then, millions of people have taken to the streets in a series of mass mobilizations like the #50501 demonstrations, “No Kings Day”, anti-ICE protests and more. And public opinion is shifting even further against Trump in key policy areas. It is simply untenable for them to repeat the same course of action – the Democratic Party leadership needs to at least be perceived as taking a stand.
But because their real concern is how they are perceived and not the actual outcome, there is a strong possibility that this shutdown will be brief and performative. Schumer and the other Democrat Congressional leaders could strike a deal after a very short period of time that does not meet any of their demands. They could dress up their surrender as a selfless move to spare the people negatively impacted by a shutdown, and the Trump administration’s war on working people’s healthcare would not be slowed down one bit.
Nothing about what comes next is inevitable. People who oppose Trump and believe in a better world should not be content to simply be spectators hoping for the best while the politicians in Washington maneuver.
The people’s movement is the key
Just like the emergence of mass protest against the Trump administration was decisive in forcing the Democratic Party leaders in Congress to take a stand, the intervention of a broad people’s movement against the far right will be decisive in the outcome of the shutdown.
Large-scale street demonstrations and other acts of protest that take place during the shutdown would apply highly useful pressure on both ends of the ruling class political spectrum. Under these circumstances, the political cost of surrender for the Democratic Party elite would be much greater. Their voting base would be further demoralized, and calls for figures like Schumer to resign from leadership would intensify. On the Republican side, mass, visible opposition poses the question — do we really want to imperil our entire political agenda just to accomplish something as unpopular as making healthcare more expensive?
The role of the labor movement could be critical to a victory in this fight. At the end of 2018, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history took place. Over the course of more than a month, vital public services ground to a halt as Trump pressed his demands for massive funding to build a border wall. Ultimately, Trump did not get his way – because the Association of Flight Attendants union and its president Sara Nelson threatened to lead the labor movement in a general strike. Speaking to other leaders of AFL-CIO unions at a dinner to honor Martin Luther King Day, Nelson said, “Go back with the fierce urgency of now to talk with your locals and international unions about all workers joining together to end this shutdown with a general strike!”
If the flight attendants went on strike and grounded flights across the country, that alone would have been highly disruptive to the normal functioning of the economy and society. To be faced with that on top of the prospect of a historic collective action by the entire working class – that was simply too much for right wing politicians in Washington to tolerate. Similar action by the labor movement in the present would galvanize the entire country – and this time it would be around an issue as broadly popular as access to healthcare.
Unions representing federal workers are in an important position to carry out mass mobilizations. The illegal cancellation of contracts last month that covered hundreds of thousands of employees at government agencies makes it clear – this is an existential crisis for the federal workforce. If the Trump administration tells federal workers to stay home because they are “non-essential”, then what better way to spend that time than by swelling the ranks of protests against his billionaire agenda?
What takes place in the coming days will be a milestone in the movement to stop Trump. If Schumer and the Democrats give up after only pretending to fight, then this should be a turning point where people who believe in justice and democracy ditch their misleadership once and for all. But the course of events might be out of the hands of any politician in Washington if the people mobilize and use this opportunity to deal a lasting blow to the Trump administration’s war on our rights.
