Donald Trump’s mass deportation policies could cause a severe economic crisis in the United States.
74% of undocumented immigrants work essential jobs, keeping society running. They also pay nearly $100 billion in taxes per year.
Donald Trump and his supporters base their anti-immigrant arguments on the assertion that immigrants have broken the law. Corporate media commentators reinforce this narrative, labeling undocumented immigrants as “illegal aliens” and “criminals”, while failing to mention that US immigration law can change, often quite dramatically, with each administration.
Generally, immigration law evolves to meet the capitalist system’s demand for low-paid labor. Immigration and citizenship policies are not fixed standards for every individual. They have double standards rooted in racism, and have always served as a tool of institutional discrimination.
Consequently, the anti-immigrant narrative stigmatizes specific populations as “socially undesirable,” as corporations rake in record profits from their labor. Meanwhile, undocumented workers face attacks by racist mobs and the police.
President Trump wasted no time in his second term to sign executive orders to deport migrants to countries across Latin America. In addition, Trump is pushing ICE to meet a quota of 1,200 to 1,500 arrests per day. As a result, communities are coming together to deny ICE agents access to apartment buildings and neighborhoods.
During Trump’s first presidential term, as the COVID-19 pandemic spread across the country, immigrants became essential workers. Their labor in critical industries such as food services, agriculture, transit, retail, and the gig economy was a significant factor in keeping the economy running. Nevertheless, immigrants are paid less than citizens, and often do not have access to public healthcare programs.
While they don’t benefit from federal social programs, undocumented immigrants also pay taxes — nearly $100 billion per year. This crucial fact is often overlooked in policy and political debates about undocumented immigration.
Following the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, immigrants played a significant role in the recovery. Many never stopped working during the pandemic, and other immigrants were among the first to return to work.
The consequences of mass deportation in the United States would result in nationwide repercussions across all sectors of the economy, and could potentially cause a severe crisis.
Immigrants Work Essential Jobs That Keep US Society Running
The undocumented community in the US is often portrayed as an unknown group of 11 million people “living in the shadows.” However, they play a central role in the economy.
Immigrants are workers and consumers who buy household items and food daily to survive. In addition, landlords and banks profit from mortgages and rents that these workers pay.
In 2019, the American Community Survey (ACS) produced an analysis with data from the New American Economy that stated, “Immigrants (14 percent of the U.S. population) wield $1.3 trillion in spending power. In some of the largest state economies, the contributions of immigrants are substantial.”
Here’s a breakdown of four major state economies based on American Community Survey (ACS) data from the New American Economy:
- California: 27% immigrant population, and immigrant spending power is $318 billion
- New York: 22% immigrant population, and immigrant spending power is $130 billion
- Texas: 17% immigrant population, and immigrant spending power is $120 billion.
- Florida: 21% immigrant population, and immigrant spending power is $105 billion.
In 2020, 19.8 million foreign-born “essential” workers were employed across all sectors of the US economy, whether in “high-skill” or “low-skill” jobs.
The vast majority of immigrants, 69%, worked essential jobs, including 74% of undocumented immigrants. This was higher than native-born individuals, 65% of whom held 65 essential jobs during the pandemic.
Over one-fifth of the employees in the food supply chain were born outside of the US. These workers harvest fruits and vegetables, grow crops, process meat, engage in wholesale or retail sales, and transport products and materials.
They also represent more than 30% of physically demanding jobs, such as farm laborers, graders and sorters, meat processing workers, and those in commercial bakeries and crop production.
Undocumented Immigrants Pay Nearly $100 Billion In Taxes Per Year
Undocumented immigrants not only drive the economy forward through their continuous work, but in 2022, they paid $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes. Of that amount, $59.4 billion went to the federal government, while $37.3 billion went to state and local governments.
Additionally, their contributions to the tax system totaled $8,889 per person in federal, state, and local taxes in 2022. Thus, for every million undocumented immigrants living in the country, public services benefit from an extra $8.9 billion in tax revenue.
Despite their contributions to the economy and taxes, more than a third of their tax dollars are used to fund programs they cannot access, due to their legal status.
In 2022, undocumented workers contributed $1.8 billion in unemployment insurance, $25.7 billion in Social Security, and $6.4 billion in Medicare taxes, all of which they do not have access to.
Immigrants Pay $20.6 Billion In Mortgages Every Year
In addition to their roles in the workforce, undocumented workers significantly contribute to the economy through rent and mortgage payments. They own 1.6 million homes, resulting in $20.6 billion in annual mortgage payments.
In comparison, renters contribute $49.1 billion in rental payments annually, according to the Center for American Progress.
Granting citizenship to undocumented workers would boost their earnings and productivity, ultimately leading to higher tax contributions and increased local spending.
An extensive deportation program can significantly impact household incomes. For example, mixed-status households would see their median household income decrease from $41,300 to $22,000, a 47% decrease. According to the Center for Migration Studies‘ research, this could push millions of families struggling to survive into poverty.
The nation’s housing market would be at risk, because 1.6 million mortgages could disappear.
Mass deportations could cause a significant recession. In a 2016 analysis, Ryan Edwards and Francesc Ortega concluded that a “policy of mass deportation would immediately reduce the nation’s GDP by 1.4 percent, and ultimately by 2.6 percent, and reduce cumulative GDP over 10 years by $4.7 trillion.”
For comparison, US GDP shrunk by 2.5% in 2008, during the financial crisis.
People Are Standing Up For Immigrants
Moving forward with a mass deportation plan would trigger a significant housing, labor, economic, and healthcare crisis nationwide — one that the country has never witnessed before.
As working-class communities across the country prepare for the possibility of increased ICE presence, people are organizing their neighborhoods to prevent their families from being kidnapped by state agents.
Lawmakers and politicians should consider the extensive consequences in both the short term and the long term.
The narrative labeling undocumented individuals as “criminals” enables the state to instill fear in communities and break apart families.
Despite these fearful tactics, the US is also seeing one of the largest immigrant rights movements in its history.
Over several days in February, high school students walked out of class across Los Angeles and organized large marches to protest Trump’s anti-immigrant policies.