At this point, we have a clear understanding of the fundamental mechanism behind U.S. foreign policy: the use of hard power, including the threat or actual deployment of military intervention and economic sanctions, to contain and isolate perceived rival powers such as Russia, China, and, to a lesser extent, Iran and the Axis of Resistance. For those familiar with the disinformation operations of Western legacy media and intelligence agencies, it is increasingly evident that U.S. hard power is experiencing unprecedented decline.
The sheer inertia behind the United States Empire will ensure a measure of global dominance for the foreseeable future, but we have passed the event horizon, and its decline is inevitable. From a military perspective, this decline was accelerated by the ironically named “Global War on Terror,” during which the United States engaged in two high-visibility “contingency operations” in Iraq and Afghanistan, along with multiple low-visibility covert actions in Libya, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen—all under pretenses that were, at best, highly questionable and, at worst, outright criminal.
Everyone except the military-industrial complex lost in the “War on Terror.” Top defense firms spent $1 billion on lobbying during the Afghan War and saw a $2 trillion return. The war shifted America’s war-fighting industrial base from one focused on high-intensity conflicts—requiring the rapid mass production of equipment, vehicles, and munitions—to one centered on specialized research and development contracts for weapons that will likely remain theoretical deterrents. After all, the real money lies in the latter focus.
The “War on Terror” is also widely credited as a significant factor behind the ongoing and worsening recruiting crisis in the U.S. military. According to the Modern War Institute at West Point, the “ghost of the GWOT” continues to haunt the U.S. military, serving as a cautionary tale of misguided and violent foreign policy.
“These are the long-term consequences of the choice to send our forces overseas absent clear, articulate, and realistic objectives against which to align resources and hard power, to a war that was unwinnable but spent lives in the endeavor anyway,” the institute stated.
The United States continues to repeat its failed foreign policy, doubling down on hawkish and bellicose stances in the proxy war in Ukraine, the genocide in Gaza, and the militarization against China. This systemic cascade failure will only further isolate younger generations from military service and alienate existing, experienced service members. Despite its aggressive foreign policy, the United States is unprepared—both in terms of industry and manpower—to fight a peer-to-peer war.
Tonight on State of Play, we are joined by Josephine Guilbeau, a former U.S. Army Combat Medic who served for over a decade as a Military Intelligence Officer. Guilbeau has worked as an All-Source Intelligence Analyst at the Defense Intelligence Agency and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in Washington, D.C. She also served as a Cyber Operations Officer during the Afghan War and recently left a multi-six-figure government contractor job to advocate and organize against the U.S. war machine.
Greg Stoker is a former US Army Ranger with a human intelligence collection and analysis background. After serving four combat deployments in Afghanistan, he studied anthropology and International Relations at Columbia University. He is currently a military and geopolitical analyst and a social media “influencer,” though he hates the term.