The Fake US Democracy Exposed Again
By The Center For Voting and Democracy - FairVote first released its Monopoly Politics projections in 1997. Monopoly Politics 2014 and the Fair Voting Solution, the most recent installment, is a comprehensive report analyzing the effects of an increasingly polarized electorate coupled with a House of Representatives elected exclusively from single-winner districts. That report contained projections for 368 of the 435 house seats, using a straightforward metric that did not rely on any information about polling data, campaign expenditures, or any of the other typical information used for projecting races. Instead, it projected which party's candidate would win a seat based on how voters in that district had voted in the 2012 presidential election along with a measure of incumbency strength.
First released in the spring of 2013 and updated as seats became open, our election 2014 projections were correct in 367 out of 368 races, meaning they were 99.7% accurate.